In the United States, the fiscal cliff refers to the economic effects that could result from tax increases, spending cuts and a corresponding reduction in the US budget deficit beginning in 2013 if existing laws remain unchanged. The deficit—the difference between what the government takes in and what it spends—is projected to be reduced by roughly half in 2013. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that this sharp decrease in the deficit (the fiscal cliff) will likely lead to a mild recession in early 2013.
The laws leading to the fiscal cliff include the expiration of the 2010 Tax Relief Act and planned spending cuts under the Budget Control Act of 2011. Nearly all proposals to avoid the fiscal cliff involve extending certain parts of the Bush tax cuts or changing the 2011 Budget Control Act or both, thus making the deficit larger by reducing taxes or increasing spending. Because of the short-term adverse impact on the economy, the fiscal cliff has stirred intense commentary both inside and outside of Congress and has led to calls to extend some or all of the tax cuts, and to replace the spending reductions with more targeted cutbacks. The protracted negotiations over this have also generated heightened policy uncertainty over the eventual tax and spending landscape in the US.
The Budget Control Act was a compromise intended to resolve a dispute concerning the public debt ceiling. Some major programs, like Social Security, Medicaid, federal pay (including military pay and pensions), and veterans' benefits, are exempted from the spending cuts.[note 1] Spending for defense, federal agencies and cabinet departments would be reduced through broad, shallow cuts referred to as budget sequestration.
The United States public debt would continue to grow even if the fiscal cliff occurs. However, over the next ten years, the smaller deficit will lower projected increases in the debt by as much as $7.1 trillion or about 70%, resulting in a considerably lower ratio of debt to the size of the economy. For the first year (from fiscal year 2012 to 2013), federal tax revenues are projected to increase by 19.63%, while spending outlays are expected to decline by 0.25%.[1](table-1.6)[note 2] These changes would raise 2013 tax revenue to 18.4% GDP, above its historical average of 18.0% GDP, while reducing spending to approximately 22.4% GDP, still above the 21.0% GDP historical spending average.
Etymology
The term fiscal cliff has been used in the past to refer to various fiscal issues.[3] The term started being used in the current context near the original expiration of the Bush tax cuts in 2010.[4][3] In 2011, the term started to be used to refer to the deficit reductions that would occur in 2013 under current law.[3][5]In late February 2012, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, popularized the term "fiscal cliff" for this crisis.[6] Before the House Financial Services Committee he described that "a massive fiscal cliff of large spending cuts and tax increases" would take place on January 1, 2013.[3][7][8]
Some analysts have argued that fiscal slope or fiscal hill would be more appropriate terminology because while the cumulative economic effect over all of 2013 would be substantial, it would not be felt immediately but rather gradually as the weeks and months went by.[9][3][10][6]
Legislative history
During a lame duck session in December 2010, Congress passed the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010. The act extended the Bush tax cuts for an additional two years and "patched" the exemptions to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) for tax year 2011. This act also authorized a one-year reduction in the Social Security (FICA) employee payroll tax. This was extended for an additional year by the Middle Class Tax Relief and Job Creation Act of 2012, which also extended federal unemployment benefits and the freeze on Medicare physician payments.[11]On August 2, 2011, Congress passed the Budget Control Act of 2011 as part of an agreement to resolve the debt-ceiling crisis. The Act provided for a Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction (the "super committee") to produce legislation by late November that would decrease the deficit by $1.2 trillion over ten years. When the super committee failed to act,[12] another part of the BCA went into effect. This directed automatic across-the-board cuts (known as "sequestrations") split evenly between defense and domestic spending, beginning on January 2, 2013. Also, the Affordable Care Act imposed new taxes on families making more than $250,000 a year ($200,000 for individuals) starting at the same time.[13]
At the end of 2011, the patch to the AMT exemptions expired. Technically, the AMT thresholds immediately reverted to their 2000 tax year levels, a drop of 26% for single people and 40% for married couples. Anyone over these reduced thresholds at the end of 2012 would be subject to the AMT. Therefore, more taxpayers would pay more unless some legislation was passed (as was done in 2007) that affects the exemptions retroactively.
Key laws leading to the fiscal cliff
A number of laws led to the fiscal cliff, including these provisions:[1][14]- Expiration of the Bush tax cuts extended by President Obama in the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010;
- Across-the-board spending cuts ("sequestration") to most discretionary programs as directed by the Budget Control Act of 2011;
- Reversion of the Alternative Minimum Tax thresholds to their 2000 tax year levels;
- Expiration of measures delaying the Medicare Sustainable Growth Rate from going into effect (the "doc fix"), as extended by the Middle Class Tax Relief and Job Creation Act of 2012 (MCTRJCA);
- Expiration of the 2% Social Security payroll tax cut, most recently extended by MCTRJCA;
- Expiration of federal unemployment benefits, as extended by MCTRJCA, and
- New taxes imposed by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010.
On the other hand, some lawmakers intend to attach a bipartisan extension to the expiring wind-power tax credit.[16] Unlike the provisions above, this will reduce, not increase, taxes by $1.3 billion.[17]
Proposals to avoid the fiscal cliff involve repealing legislation containing certain of these provisions or passing new legislation to extend provisions that are due to expire. Different proposals may include changes to some or all of the above provisions. For example, the Congressional Budget Office's "Alternative Fiscal Scenario" includes only the first four items above. Changes to other provisions are also sometimes included in such proposals; for example, changing the original caps on discretionary appropriations contained in 2011's Budget Control Act, indexing the AMT exemptions for inflation (rather than capping them for one year at a time) or the wholesale or partial reform of the tax laws and/or the entitlement programs (sometimes called "the grand bargain").[18]
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